By ERA Research & Consultancy
ERA Real Estate, The Bulletin Published April 2022 Download PDF Article
HDB Resale Property Market, 1Q 2022
Summary
- The pace of price growth of HDB resale flats had slowed down in 1Q 2022. However, it grew 12.2% year-on-year.
- The price rise was largely contributed by the price appreciation of larger flats.
- Fewer HDB resale flats were sold in 1Q 2022 due to Lunar New Year lull period and lower supply of resale flats for sale.
HDB Resale Price
In the first quarter of this year, the pace of price growth of HDB resale flats had slowed down compared to the preceding quarter. However, the rate of HDB resale price expansion is still faster than the inflation rate of 4.3% year-on-year (yoy),
indicating that public housing is still a good hedge against inflation.
In 1Q 2022, the HDB resale price index increased at a moderately slower pace of 2.4% quarter-on-quarter (qoq), compared to the 3.4% qoq rise in the preceding quarter of 4Q 2021.
Compared to the same period one year ago, the HDB resale price index increased 12.2% yoy last quarter. This is about three times higher than the 4.3% yoy increase of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
According to our research, the price rise was largely contributed by the price appreciation of larger flats. In the first three months of 2022, the median prices of 5-room flats and Executive flats increased 2.6% and 2.8% qoq respectively, while the median price of 3-room flats rose by a smaller 2.3% qoq to $358,000. The median prices of 2-room flats remained unchanged at $280,000 over the same period.
HDB Resale Transaction Volume
The slower housing price growth was accompanied by the lower resale transaction volume. According to the official figures, 6,934 HDB resale flats exchanged hands last quarter, which was 12.7% lower than the resale volume in the fourth quarter of last year.
The decline in resale transaction volume was due to seasonal factors such as the Lunar New Year lull period. The HDB resale transaction volume is usually lower in the first quarter of every year as most property marketing activities wind down for the holidays.
Another reason for the lower resale volume is the lack of HDB resale flats available for sale. Although the demand for resale flats remain strong, some flat owners are reluctant to sell their flats as they are either unable or unwilling to pay more for their next housing unit, or they could not find suitable replacement homes. Hence, some property agents are running out of stock of HDB resale flats for sale.
Outlook
In the coming months, there will be various opposing factors that will influence the HDB resale market.
First, the government plans to push out 23,000 HDB BuildTo-Order (BTO) flats this year, which are more than the BTO supply in the previous year. The government could supply another 23,000 BTO flats next year if necessary. The higher supply of BTO flats could help to cool down the robust HDB resale market.
Second, the delay and disruptions in the construction of BTO flats could gradually ease this year and this could attract more homebuyers from the HDB resale market to buy BTO flats from the government. These two reasons would slow down the pace of HDB resale price increase. But in the absence of an economic slowdown, these two factors should not cause the HDB resale prices to contract.
One of the reasons that will cause HDB resale prices to rise is that more HDB flats will reach the end of their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2022 than in previous years. About 31,000 HDB flats could reach the end of their MOP this year, compared to 23,000 flats in the preceding year. The flat owners could sell these flats in the resale market after the end of the MOP. As these flats are newer, they will usually fetch higher prices in the resale market compared to the older flats in the same neighbourhood. Their sales will contribute to the rise in the HDB resale price index.
However, as the residential leasing market is buoyed by strong demand and rising rentals, some flat owners may choose to rent out their HDB flats, rather than to sell the flats. This will reduce the supply of resale flats for sale, which will subsequently increase the upward pressure on prices.
Furthermore, the steady economic growth and the easing of the COVID restrictions will strengthen homebuyers’ confidence and the expectation of further rise in property prices. Considering all these factors, the HDB resale price index could expand 6% to 10% for the whole of this year.
Written By ERA Research & Consultancy
ERA Singapore
T: (65) 6249 3172
W: rnc@era.com.sg
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